How we analyse
Betting Methodology
How we analyse a Cheltenham race: verified data first, trends computed only from tables you can see, prices read as probabilities, and a clear line between what the evidence shows and what we think.
The order of work
- Verified data first. Results, starting prices, distances, dates and records come from our verified-facts register, each with a source. See sources and data.
- Structure before prose. Winners tables, price-band tables, trainer and jockey counts, timelines and checklists come first; commentary explains the tables rather than replacing them.
- Compute, then interpret. Every trend is a count from a visible table with the working shown. Interpretation is labelled as interpretation.
- State the limits. Each analysis says what the table cannot tell you — ages, ratings, going, previous runs — so that absence of a claim is understood as absence of data, not oversight.
Reading a price
| Concept | How we use it |
|---|---|
| Implied probability | 1 ÷ decimal odds. 4/1 (5.00) implies 20%. Every price in our analysis is read this way. See how odds work. |
| Overround | The sum of implied probabilities in a market minus 100%. We compare overrounds across bookmakers where prices are available. |
| Value | Our assessed chance is materially higher than the implied probability. A judgement, not a fact — tested by the tip record. |
| Ante-post adjustment | Non-runner risk raises the win rate a horse must achieve when it does run. We show the arithmetic in the ante-post guide. |
| Each-way arithmetic | Place terms and the break-even price (4/1 at 1/4 odds, 5/1 at 1/5 odds) are checked before any each-way suggestion. See each-way betting. |
What we look at in a race
- The race's own record. Ten verified runnings, with favourites, price bands, trainer, jockey and repeat-winner counts. For instance, five of the last ten Gold Cup winners were favourites or joint-favourites and none was bigger than 12/1; only two of the last ten Stayers' Hurdle winners were favourites and six were double-figure prices. Those are counts, not laws.
- Trip and course. Distance and course are verified to the yard for the four championship races; Old Course and New Course characteristics are described from official sources.
- The going. Soft has been the opening-day description at four of the last five Festivals; race-week updates are read as described in the going explainer.
- The market. Price, direction of movement and — once a licensed feed is connected — the spread between bookmakers. Until then, prices on the site are simulated and labelled DEMO, and indicative third-party ante-post prices are dated and attributed.
- Connections. Trainer and jockey Festival records from verified totals (for example Willie Mullins 121 winners, Paul Townend 42), without strike rates until runner counts are verified.
What we refuse to claim
- Any outcome as guaranteed, risk-free or certain.
- A trend from data we do not hold (ages, ratings, going by year, trial form).
- A trend from a table too small to bear it, presented as anything but a description of the recent past.
- A price as "live" from a named bookmaker unless it comes from a licensed feed.
- That a losing tip was anything other than a losing tip.
Staking
We do not advise stakes. Tips are recorded to notional level stakes (one point win, or one point each-way where the tip is each-way) so the record can be judged over time; the results are published as points profit or loss. Your stake is your decision and should never exceed what you can afford to lose. 18+. Support: responsible gambling.